Denver vs. Falcons matchups, predictions

Falcons (6-4) at Broncos (5-5)

When: Sunday, 2:05 PM MT

Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1FM/FOX

Broncos-Falcons Series: Denver is 8-7 in 15 regular season games dating back to 1970; the Broncos lost 34-27 in the last meeting, on Nov. 8, 2020, in Atlanta, and have lost two in a row against the Falcons.

Spotlight: Atlanta’s biggest weakness could be a big day for Bo Nix

When they faced the Saints in Week 10, the Falcons did their best to put pressure on quarterback Derek Carr. Their attempts were unsuccessful.

The Falcons blew their second-highest of the season (48.1%), but generated just two pressures and failed to record a sack, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Carr didn’t shy away from Atlanta’s pass rush, throwing for 125 yards and a touchdown when he was blitzed during a stunning 20-17 win over the Falcons.

Atlanta’s struggle to apply pressure has been notable this fall. The Falcons have the lowest pressure rate (27.4%) and lowest sack rate (nine) in the league. Their biggest problem, however, could be beneficial for Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, who is now heading in the right direction.

The 2024 draft gave the Falcons a chance to address their pass-rush issues. Jared Verse, one of the top rushers in this year’s class, was available when they were on the clock with the eighth overall pick.

Instead, Atlanta shocked the football world by signing quarterback Michael Penix Jr. despite signing four-time Pro Bowler Kirk Cousins ​​to a lucrative deal just a few weeks earlier. And 10 weeks into the season, Verse, who was taken 19th overall by the Rams, was one of the best defensive rookies in the league. He has racked up 4.5 sacks and 45 pressures – sixth-most in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Falcons’ sack leader, defensive lineman Grady Jarrett, has just 2.5. Veteran outside linebacker Matt Judon, a four-time Pro Bowl selection, has 1.5 sacks and 17 pressures. Judon has had a pressure rate below 10% in four of his last five games.

The Falcons have played five games with fewer than five pressures. Sunday’s loss marked the sixth time they have not recorded a sack. They also haven’t had a sack in three of their last five games.

Denver, on the other hand, is among the best in the league when it comes to protecting the quarterback. The Broncos have allowed the seventh-lowest pressure rate (29.1%), while Nix has been sacked just seventeen times, according to Next Gen Stats.

Broncos left tackle Garett Bolles has had a problem with penalties but has been effective in pass protection. He has given up one sack and has the sixth-lowest pressure rate (5.5%) among offensive tackles with at least 200 pass-blocking snaps, according to Next Gen Stats.

Nix is ​​fresh off being named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Week after throwing for 215 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs. Despite the handful of talented players in Atlanta’s secondary, including safeties Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates III, Denver’s clear advantage in the trenches gives the former Oregon signal-caller a chance to build on his performance in Kansas City.

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run

Against the Chiefs, Audric Estime showed signs that he could be Denver’s best running back, with 14 carries for 53 yards. His ability to use his size to strengthen the field is something the team needs. The rookie is averaging 5.1 yards on 29 carries. The Falcons held the Saints to 96 yards on the ground last week. It was the first time Atlanta gave up fewer than 100 rushing yards in 2024. Edge: even

When Broncos pass

Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton has seen his production increase in recent weeks. He has totaled 345 yards on 25 receptions over the past five games. His performance against Kansas City (six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown) was his fifth game with at least 60 yards this season. Falcons cornerback AJ Terrell has given up 31 catches for 376 yards and four touchdowns. He has recorded an interception in two of Atlanta’s last four games. Edge: even

Like Falcons run

Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson is a problem. He has recorded more than 100 scrimmage yards in five straight games — the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest by a Falcons player since wide receiver Julio Jones in 2018, according to Next Gen Stats. However, Denver will have to worry about more than just Robinson. Running back Tyler Allgeier has 85 carries for 429 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Broncos were solid against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per carry – fifth-best in the league. They will be tested on Sunday. Edge: Falcons

When Falcons pass by

Atlanta’s pick-your-poison offense, led by quarterback Kirk Cousins, could threaten to extend Denver’s losing streak to three games. The Falcons have five players with at least 300 receiving yards, including wide receiver Drake London (58 catches for 649 yards and six touchdowns). The key for the Broncos will be creating pressure on Cousins. Denver had twenty pressures against the Chiefs, keeping the team in the game until the end. Edge: even

Special teams

Last week the Broncos and Falcons had deplorable performances on special teams. A blocked field goal ended Denver’s chance to secure its biggest upset of the season. Meanwhile, Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo went 1 for 4 on field goal attempts in the loss to New Orleans. But the Broncos have generally been efficient at kicking and returning. Edge: Broncos

Coaching

Sean Payton is starting to learn what works for his offense. And it showed during the two touchdown drives at Arrowhead Stadium. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph responded well after watching his unit get beaten by the Ravens in Week 9. Under first-year head coach Raheem Morris, the Falcons, winners of two of their last three games, are off to a solid start despite defensive issues. Edge: Broncos

Story of the band

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By the numbers

10: Touchdown passes thrown by Broncos QB Bo Nix

569: Receiving yards for Broncos WR Courtland Sutton

7: Bags recorded by Broncos OLB Nik Bonitto

31: Career Interceptions for Falcons S Justin Simmons

8.1: Yards per reception for Falcons RB Bijan Robinson

Bet on it

Falcons third quarter winner (-102): Denver’s offensive struggles in the third quarter could be beneficial for the Falcons. Through 10 games, the Broncos (57.4) rank 29th in total yards in the third quarter and last in passing yards (28.1). In the last two games they were held scoreless in the third game.

Broncos’ first scoring play, touchdown (-180): Denver recorded a touchdown on its first scoring play in three straight games. Each score was a passing touchdown, including two by Bo Nix and one by Courtland Sutton. With Atlanta’s inconsistent pass defense, Nix has a chance to increase his passing touchdown total on Sunday.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 28, Falcons 27

This feels like a sneaky, tough matchup given the way Kirk Cousins ​​has played, the diversity of Atlanta’s offense and the group’s great run game. It’s the kind of challenge that can test even the best secondary players. The brain keeps saying ‘upset alarm’. Sometimes you go with the gut instead. And the feeling is that Sean Payton’s team is ready for the challenge.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 24, Falcons 21

In the Kansas City locker room, the Broncos grew frustrated as they let a win over the defending champions slip through their fingers. Expect Denver to carry that aggression into Sunday’s game against Atlanta. Bo Nix will take advantage of Atlanta’s inability to apply pressure and perform strongly at home.

Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 23, Falcons 20

The Broncos claim this team is different. Time to prove it. If they are a playoff team, they need to win at home against a good team. Bo Nix will join Peyton Manning as the only rookie QB to pass for at least 200 yards and multiple touchdowns in four consecutive home games. And Denver will benefit, as the collapsing Younghoe Koo misses a key kick and remains on mark since Week 4 (8 for 15).