Three lessons from the Chiefs’ 30-21 loss to the Bills

The Buffalo Bills handed the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the 2024 season with a 30-21 victory on Sunday. The Chiefs fall to 9-1 while the Bills improve to 9-2.

Here are some early insights from the game:

Buffalo’s third-down conversions prove to be the key to the game.

There’s a lot that goes into a game that ends with a score of 30-21, but when I look for the main reason the Bills knocked off the Chiefs, it was Buffalo’s success on third down.

The Bills converted 9 of 15 third downs (60%), inclusive six cases where the distance to be gained was six meters or more.

Recent games have shown some difficulty pressuring the quarterback without a blitz — something defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo seemed to realize on Sunday. He often brought in an extra man in an attempt to contain quarterback Josh Allen. On Sunday, more often than not, Allen was up for the challenge.

Going into the game, Kansas City’s defense was in an incredible stretch. No opposing offense had scored 30 points against it since Super Bowl LVII against the Philadelphia Eagles.

As great as it has been, there have been areas of concern recently. The first half (and opening scores) were a problem. Coverage in the center of the field was also a concern.

After cornerback Jaylen Watson’s injury, opponents have made it a priority to target his replacement. On Sunday it was cornerback Nazeeh Johnson. Sophomore safety Chamarri Conner had an up-and-down day, making a critical interception that led to a touchdown but leaving a pair of tackles on the field.

On the decisive play – Allen’s 26-yard run for a touchdown on fourth-and-2 – it appeared no Kansas City player was “spying” on him. It was the final dagger in the team’s attempt to keep the game alive.

The Chiefs’ offensive stars had quiet afternoons.

The Chiefs’ recent woes have often stemmed from an inability to convert in the red zone. But on Sunday, the team scored on every trip. The problem was there were only three.

I often say that even to beat the Chiefs – even with all their injuries – you have to play a near-perfect game. But so do a few other teams in the league. The bills are one of them.

Buffalo faltered after winning the coin toss, making Kansas City’s first possession more important than usual. It ended with a bad interception that led to a score, which I thought put the Chiefs on their back foot all afternoon.

Kansas City gained two one-point leads, but the key sequence came on the first two drives of the second half. After a three-and-out, Kansas City’s defense stood up to get the ball back.

From back-to-back plays to wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Mecole Hardman, the Chiefs had two first downs. The next play was a 6-yard run by Kareem Hunt that made it second-and-4 at midfield. Then came a holding penalty on left tackle Wanya Morris.

At the time it didn’t seem like a problem. But the penalty would lead to a punt, resulting in a Buffalo scoring drive. After that, the Bills never looked back.

One day, Kansas City hoped the return of JuJu Smith-Schuster would lead to improved offensive production, but it didn’t really matter. Buffalo had a good plan, limiting DeAndre Hopkins to just 29 yards and Travis Kelce to just eight. Playing from the back put the Chiefs in a pass-heavy approach. Running back Kareem Hunt finished with just 60 yards on 14 carries.

Wide receiver Xavier Worthy had a fruitful early stretch, but all of his production came on four catches within eight plays. Then he was silent. With the Bills guarding the Chiefs closely, tight end Noah Gray finished with the first two-score game of his career.

Kansas City can find ways to beat lesser teams without the production of its stars, but it will struggle to beat them fighting team if it can’t get them going.

All good things come to an end… except this is not the end.

The sky may appear to fall for the rest of the evening – and indeed for the next few days. But here’s the reality: nothing has been decided yet.

The Chiefs won fifteen games in a row nine to start 2024. But none of these achievements were ever their goal – as they often remind us when speaking to the press.

We’ve been through it. There is a lot to discuss on both sides of the football. Yet the team was just a few plays away from finding a way to win in Buffalo.

History has dictated that the Bills will play the regular season, and the Chiefs will play the playoffs. I have a feeling that in early 2025 we will get a chance to see if history will repeat itself.