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How much will it cost to make dinner this year?

Vaseline3 weeks ago

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How much will it cost to make dinner this year?

The juicy turkey, the decadent stuffing, the buttery mashed potatoes, and the mouth-watering pumpkin pie: It’s the perfect traditional Thanksgiving meal, but it can add up to an expensive grocery bill.

In the run-up to Thanksgiving, food prices are already a top priority for many consumers. The price of groceries remains extremely high, costing about 28% more than in 2019. In the past year alone, the price has increased by 1.1%, according to the Consumer Price Index.

Despite the high prices, there’s good news: Your Thanksgiving feast might cost a little less this year.

Experts say Thanksgiving could cost less

Every year, the University of Tennessee Extension, led by Ann Berry, releases a study on the price of Thanksgiving dinner. The research team looks at the meal costs to feed a group of 10 people at a traditional turkey feast.

To find the cost, experts shop at 16 major supermarkets and local grocery stores throughout Tennessee. They shopped at each store for the same 23 ingredients from November 1 to 8 and then averaged the total costs across all stores.

The project began in Tennessee in 2021, inspired by national Thanksgiving price research conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation.

“We want to help our consumers make the best decisions wisely and provide research-based information that will help them and their families,” Berry said. “We want them to have safe food and not strain their budgets too much.”

Since 2021, Berry and her team have seen a gradual increase in grocery prices that align with national trends in food inflation. In 2021, the dinner cost $110. That same meal cost $112 in 2022 and $128 in 2023. But this year there is some relief; costs have fallen.

Berry’s team found that a traditional Thanksgiving dinner to feed 10 people in 2024 would cost about $126. If you take the two most expensive grocery stores out of the mix – The Fresh Market and Whole Foods – the average dinner cost drops to $116. That works out to $11.63 per person.

Turkey costs less, while egg prices are higher

One of the biggest factors in lower meal costs this year is turkey, whose price dropped by about $5. Last year a 16-pound bird would have cost about $30, but this year the turkey should fetch about $25.

Eggs, on the other hand, have increased in price by 76%. This is a crucial ingredient for pies and fillings: it’s not something you should skip for Thanksgiving. A carton of eggs costs an average of $4.32 for a pack of 18.

Pumpkin pie filling saw a significant price increase in 2024. The canned mixture will cost almost 80% more this year, according to Berry.

Beware of shrinkflation

While supermarket price tags are getting bigger, food packages are getting smaller, Berry’s team discovered. Often companies will reduce their product size while keeping the price the same. Also called “shrinkflation,” it is a marketing practice that affects a third of about 100 common consumer products, according to a CBS News report.

Berry specifically mentioned frozen green beans and frozen peas that became smaller in packaging over the years of Thanksgiving research.

Why do food prices fluctuate?

There are a few reasons why food prices can change. Inflation is everywhere and the food industry is no exception.

First, disruptions to a supply chain can cause costs to change. Take Hurricane Helene, for example. The storm caused extensive damage to roads and a major highway, Interstate 40, affecting shipping and truck routes.

Rising operating costs are also a factor. Because labor and transportation cost more, the final product will have a higher price.

Price averages for Thanksgiving ingredients

These are the average prices of 16 supermarkets in Tennessee. The prices reflect the cheapest possible option, often the store-brand products, Berry said.

Turkey, £16. $25.46
Ham, 4 lbs. $21.10
Frozen green peas, 1 pound $2.09
Frozen green beans, 1 pound $2.43
Tart Shells (2) $3.68
Sweet potatoes, 3 lbs. $3.17
Russet potatoes, 5 lbs. $3.78
Prepared crisper, 1 pound $8.20
Fresh Cranberries, 12 oz. $2.48
Canned pumpkin pie mix or filling, 30 oz. (x2) $7.30
Jellied Cranberry Sauce, 14 oz. $2.23
Can of cream of mushroom soup, 10.5 oz. $1.34
Sugar, 4 lbs. $3.91
Pecan Halves, 10 oz. $7.70
Marshmallows, 1 pound $2.37
Stuffing mix, 6 oz. (x2) $3.24
Crispy Fried Onions, 6 oz. $2.91
Cans of evaporated milk, 12 oz. (x2) $2.98
Rolls, 12-pack $3.88
Milk, whole, 1 gallon. $4.01
Whipped cream, half pint $3.16
Butter, 1 pound $5.03
Eggs, 18 pieces $4.32

Tips for saving at the grocery store for Thanksgiving

There are ways to save money when preparing a Thanksgiving meal. The key is to plan ahead and know exactly what ingredients you need. Berry shared her best tips for saving at the supermarket.

Coupons, coupons, coupons. Search and use the advertisements that supermarkets publish every week.
Think back to last year’s meal. Have you had food waste? Can you cut back?
Use Save The Food’s Guest Imator to understand how much food to prepare.
Shop smart. Make a list.
If you have leftovers, use them wisely and within 3-4 days.